For some things, the longer they have lasted, the longer they may last.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Essayist and researcher whose work examines uncertainty, rare events, and the fragility of systems. His writing brings questions of survival and risk into everyday decision making.
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The shape of a response determines whether variation helps or hurts.
Separate a protected reserve from a small, explicitly risky allocation.
The right to act without an obligation changes the downside of uncertainty.
Who receives the upside—and who bears the loss—can change a decision.
A long reassuring history can miss the mechanism that ends it.
Extreme events can be more common—and more consequential—than we expect.
Even a favorable game can end badly when your resources are finite.
The stories we can see may hide the evidence we need most.
These relationships distinguish discussion, development, and popularization; they do not imply sole invention. Effect pages include supporting references where verified and label provisional associations.