Risk & Uncertainty.

More observations can stabilize an average without making the next outcome predictable.

The shape of a response determines whether variation helps or hurts.

Separate a protected reserve from a small, explicitly risky allocation.

The right to act without an obligation changes the downside of uncertainty.

Who receives the upside—and who bears the loss—can change a decision.

A long reassuring history can miss the mechanism that ends it.

Known odds and unknown odds can feel different even when their midpoint matches.

Two pairs of lotteries can expose tension in how we value certainty.

Removing a small risk can feel better than preventing more harm overall.

Combining different exposures helps most when they do not move together.

For some things, the longer they have lasted, the longer they may last.

Extreme events can be more common—and more consequential—than we expect.

Even a favorable game can end badly when your resources are finite.

The stories we can see may hide the evidence we need most.

The chance of crossing a boundary from which you cannot continue.